For nearly two years, the job market Americans were told about has been significantly stronger than the one that actually existed, and the Federal Reserve made a major policy decision based on numbers that have since been quietly rewritten.
No, it will cause it to go up because of the Federal Reserve mandate. The Fed has to weigh inflation against employment. If employment numbers are bad, the Fed cuts rates which makes it:
no way lol, if anything there’s another hike incoming
SAN FRANCISCO, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will probably need to increase short-term interest rates further to rein in too-high inflation, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said on Wednesday, but she signaled there is no need to do so at the US central bank’s October 27-28 meeting.
You can tell the Fed doesn’t know what to do given they keep pretending inflation is tied to economic activity and not trade wars and actual wars.
In a normal world the Fed would be calling on the President or Congress to enact policy to curb inflation since its a type of inflation the Fed has no control over, but no one seems to want to call Trump on all the damage he’s been doing.
So there was a planned hike, but due to the revision there isn’t going to be one. So how is that not good news for the stock market? It was bracing for the hike
Right that it still tilts that direction, but it is true that they will lower rates to try to improve employment if employment looks bad, as a general point of strategy. Currently inflation is so bad that even this bad news doesn’t really move the needle in this case.
You’re right about the dual mandate, that’s the traditional mechanism: weak jobs, rate cuts, stocks up. And honestly, that plays right into what Trump wants anyway. Bad job numbers give the Fed cover to cut, which is exactly what he’s been demanding. But I think the mandate is being overpowered now.
Trump wants rates at 1% or lower. He’s a real estate guy who built his career on cheap debt, and he’s openly said the oil industry is “making a freaking fortune” off high gas prices and “I don’t give a damn.” That tells you whose interests come first.
Cheap money flows into assets, and the hottest asset right now is AI, controlled by a handful of tech billionaires who lined up behind this administration. When jobs disappear, their investors read it as proof AI is working, and stocks climb. The market isn’t following the Fed’s mandate anymore, it’s following capital’s story…
So in my view, the people outwardly pulling the strings are the asset owners: oil, tech, real estate, and the administration serving them. Bad news for workers is good news for them. That’s what I mean by psychos.
Okay, get your tinfoil hat? This next part is pure speculation, but what if…
What if pressuring the Fed isn’t just about donors, but part of something bigger? Trump calls Canada the 51st state, wants Greenland, and talks about owning the Western Hemisphere. His envoys are real estate and investment guys holding repeated meetings with Putin about joint business deals, while he waives Russian sanctions.
My theory… there’s been a kind of modern Yalta, where the big strongmen quietly carve the world into spheres. The Fed is one of the last independent institutions standing in the way, so it has to be bent. Cheap money pumps up the assets the ruling circle owns. The Iran war drives up oil, which enriches Russia and US oil, hurts Europe, and squeezes ordinary Americans. A squeezed, destabilized population is easier to push around. Every piece of the pattern is there for this… and the people winning is pretty clear.
No, it will cause it to go up because of the Federal Reserve mandate. The Fed has to weigh inflation against employment. If employment numbers are bad, the Fed cuts rates which makes it:
no way lol, if anything there’s another hike incoming
You can tell the Fed doesn’t know what to do given they keep pretending inflation is tied to economic activity and not trade wars and actual wars.
In a normal world the Fed would be calling on the President or Congress to enact policy to curb inflation since its a type of inflation the Fed has no control over, but no one seems to want to call Trump on all the damage he’s been doing.
So there was a planned hike, but due to the revision there isn’t going to be one. So how is that not good news for the stock market? It was bracing for the hike
Right that it still tilts that direction, but it is true that they will lower rates to try to improve employment if employment looks bad, as a general point of strategy. Currently inflation is so bad that even this bad news doesn’t really move the needle in this case.
Maybe in 2010 but I could argue that’s now how it works today.
How does it work today?
You’re right about the dual mandate, that’s the traditional mechanism: weak jobs, rate cuts, stocks up. And honestly, that plays right into what Trump wants anyway. Bad job numbers give the Fed cover to cut, which is exactly what he’s been demanding. But I think the mandate is being overpowered now. Trump wants rates at 1% or lower. He’s a real estate guy who built his career on cheap debt, and he’s openly said the oil industry is “making a freaking fortune” off high gas prices and “I don’t give a damn.” That tells you whose interests come first. Cheap money flows into assets, and the hottest asset right now is AI, controlled by a handful of tech billionaires who lined up behind this administration. When jobs disappear, their investors read it as proof AI is working, and stocks climb. The market isn’t following the Fed’s mandate anymore, it’s following capital’s story… So in my view, the people outwardly pulling the strings are the asset owners: oil, tech, real estate, and the administration serving them. Bad news for workers is good news for them. That’s what I mean by psychos. Okay, get your tinfoil hat? This next part is pure speculation, but what if… What if pressuring the Fed isn’t just about donors, but part of something bigger? Trump calls Canada the 51st state, wants Greenland, and talks about owning the Western Hemisphere. His envoys are real estate and investment guys holding repeated meetings with Putin about joint business deals, while he waives Russian sanctions. My theory… there’s been a kind of modern Yalta, where the big strongmen quietly carve the world into spheres. The Fed is one of the last independent institutions standing in the way, so it has to be bent. Cheap money pumps up the assets the ruling circle owns. The Iran war drives up oil, which enriches Russia and US oil, hurts Europe, and squeezes ordinary Americans. A squeezed, destabilized population is easier to push around. Every piece of the pattern is there for this… and the people winning is pretty clear.