Today is Tuesday, 10/20 and the general US Elections are in TWO WEEKS.
As it stands right now, the current Senate composition is:
47 - Democrats
51 - Republicans
2 - Independents
Looking at the numbers, we COULD see a huge shift in the Senate this year, best case scenario would be:
52 - Democrats
45 - Republicans
3 - Independents
1ST DEMOCRATIC FLIP - NC
2ND DEMOCRATIC FLIP - SC
3RD DEMOCRATIC FLIP - TX
4TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - OH
5TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - KS
6TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - IA
7TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - ME
El-Sayed wins MI, hold, not a flip!
Alaska - 74% Reporting - D+0.29 (637 votes!)
(Dan Sullivan^1 47.88%
Dan Sullivan^2 1.68%)
Mississippi - 96% Reporting - D+0.18 (1,724 votes!)
Chart Follows:
| State | Current | Occupant | Status | D Cand | R Cand | Polling 10/18 | Outcome | Polling Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | Democratic | Hickenlooper | Safe D | John Hickelooper | Mark Baisley | Called D | ||
| Delaware | Democratic | Coons | Safe D | Chris Coons | Michael Katz | Called D | ||
| Georgia | Democratic | Ossoff | Safe D | Jon Ossoff | Mike Collins | Called D | ||
| Illnois | Democratic | Durbin | Safe D | Juliana Stratton | Don Tracy | Called D | ||
| Massachusetts | Democratic | Markey | Safe D | Ed Markey | John Deaton | Called D | ||
| New Hampshire | Democratic | Shaheen | Safe D | Chris Pappas | John E. Sununu | Called D | ||
| New Jersey | Democratic | Booker | Safe D | Cory Booker | Justin Murphy | Called D | ||
| New Mexico | Democratic | Luja | Safe D | Ben Ray Luján | Larry Marker | Called D | ||
| Oregon | Democratic | Merkley | Safe D | Jeff Merkley | David Brock Smith | Called D | ||
| Rhode Island | Democratic | Reed | Safe D | Jack Reed | Raymond McKay | Called D | ||
| Virginia | Democratic | Warner | Safe D | Mark Warner | Bert Mizusawa | Called D | ||
| Minnesota | Democratic | Smith | D | Peggy Flanagan | Michele Tafoya | Called D | ||
| North Carolina | Republican | Tillis | D | Roy Cooper | Michael Whatley | D FLIP | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 6/1 |
| Alabama | Republican | Tuberville | Safe R | Everett Wess | Barry Moore | Called R | ||
| Arkansas | Republican | Cotton | Safe R | Hallie Shoffner | Tom Cotton | Called R | ||
| Florida | Republican | Moody | Safe R | Angie Nixon | Ashley Moody | Called R | ||
| Idaho | Republican | Risch | Safe R | Withdrawn | Jim Risch | Called R | ||
| Kentucky | Republican | McConnell | Safe R | Charles Booker | Andy Barr | Called R | ||
| Louisiana | Republican | Cassidy | Safe R | Jamie Davis | Julia Letlow | Called R | ||
| Mississippi | Republican | Hyde-Smith | Safe R | Cindy Hyde-Smith | Scott Colom | R+9 | ||
| Montana | Republican | Daines | Safe R | Alani Bankhead | Kurt Alme | Called R | ||
| Nebraska | Republican | Ricketts | Safe R | Dan Osborn (I) | Pete Ricketts | Called R | R Momentum since 10/1 | |
| Oklahoma | Republican | Armstrong | Safe R | N’Kiyla Thomas | Kevin Hern | Called R | ||
| South Dakota | Republican | Rounds | Safe R | Brian Bengs | Mike Rounds | Called R | ||
| Tennessee | Republican | Hagerty | Safe R | Marquita Bradshaw | Bill Hagerty | Called R | ||
| West Virginia | Republican | Capito | Safe R | Rachel Fetty Anderson | Shelley Moore Capito | Called R | ||
| Wyoming | Republican | Lummis | Safe R | James Byrd | Harriet Hageman | Called R | ||
| South Carolina | Republican | Graham | R | Annie Andrews | Darline Graham | D FLIP | R Momentum since 8/29 | |
| Alaska | Republican | Sullivan | Tossup | Mary Peltola | Dan Sullivan | D+3 | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 8/4 |
| Iowa | Republican | Ernst | Tossup | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | D FLIP | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 9/10 |
| Kansas | Republican | Marshall | Tossup | Adam Hamilton | Roger Marshall | D FLIP | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 10/1 |
| Maine | Republican | Collins | Tossup | Troy Jackson | Susan Collins | COLLINS CONCEDES | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 7/6 |
| Michigan | Democratic | Peters | Tossup | Abdul El-Sayed | Mike Rogers | Called D | Possible R Flip | D Momentum since 8/17 |
| Ohio | Republican | Husted | Tossup | Sherrod Brown | Jon Husted | D FLIP | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 6/2 |
| Texas | Republican | Cornyn | Tossup | James Talarico | Ken Paxton | D FLIP | Possible D Flip | D Momentum since 6/1 |
IT’S BEEN CALLED BY AP!
Dems took back the Senate!
Great! I’m waiting for Michigan and Mississippi now.
Holy shit, I didn’t even notice ol Mississip. It was looking red all night but I just checked after you pointed it out. Colom is up by 28 votes with 97% ballots counted so far…
That is the definition of neck-and-neck.
And yeah Michigan is the main reason I’m still up right now (that and the House!). It’s been tight all night but El-Sayed has been edging ahead for the past hour or so! 76% of the count is in so far
Yup! Only a matter of “By How Much?”
There is still a chance of 1 Republican flip, not enough to make a difference, but still possible.
Someone else just pointed out Mississippi might flip! I just checked and the Dem is up by 28 votes
This is so exciting!
Lol they might lose the Mississippi Senate race. Fucking MISSISSIPPI. That plus Georgia and Texas? Holy shit the GOP fucked up badly. 😂
Mississippi was marked “Safe R” with a 9 point margin, which was even more “safe” for them than Texas. That is absolutely insane.
It’s so damn close. Any idea when the final votes are counted there?
COLLINS CONCEDES!!!
Was her brow furrowed when she conceded?
I hope she learned her lesson.
FINALLY.
I sure do hate my state of Florida. They choose the worse outcomes everytime rewarding a woman who literally stole from them weak af.
To be fair, there is a lot of cheating going on down there. They’re changing election locations last minute and then not posting clearly where the new ones are. I’m sure there are many more fucked up things going down.
HOLY SHIT!
MISSISSIPPI - Democrat is up by 28 votes. TWENTY EIGHT.
48.95% D
48.94% R97% Reporting with Cindy Hyde-Smith as the Republican.
Watching NBC:
There are 2 big counties to watch:
4100 votes left in a county leaning Democratic +60
4200 votes left in a county leaning Republican +3So if he gets +60% of 4100 and +47% of 4200…
MISSISSIPPI - Democrat is up by 28 votes. TWENTY EIGHT.
If this isn’t a compelling example of how every vote counts, I don’t know what is.
The fact that it’s even close says enough
NPR reports that Democrat Roy Cooper has won North Carolina’s open U.S. Senate seat, a flip.
El-Sayed is giving a victory speech but the race has not yet been called by the AP or anyone else…
51.8% to 46.2%.
Rogers told his supporters to go home.
Edit Race called for El-Sayed!
54 minimum, 55 likely, 56 possible.
“best case 52”
lol
Fuck ya, they got rid of Susan Collins.
President Trump would like to offer his input on the results tonight.
I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
I think he knows he’s fucked.
Gallons of ketchup just flying at the walls tonight!
I sense a disturbance in the Force.
Thousands of Goppers going, “They won’t take Mississippi. They won’t FUCKING take it. FUCK!”
apnews showing 52. Anyone know what changed? I still only count 6 flips
They aren’t counting the safe undecided seats.
I look forward to Trump looking at these numbers and saying “they’re not mad at me, they’re mad at the republicans who aren’t me”
Edit: per the economist
22:37 EST | Mr Trump has responded to tonight’s results for the first time, writing on social media: “I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE!” He had repeatedly encouraged voters to “pretend I’m on the ballot” ahead of election day. On Monday the White House touted the president’s “relentless” 20-state midterm campaign tour.
Lololol
You called it! He’s so blatantly pathetic.
Woo!
Young Americans. Don’t forget tonight. Don’t ever forget what the last two years of evil that was allowed free reign in the USA and across the world.
Also. I didn’t hear a peep about Idaho this cycle, and even they’re going Independent?!?!?(Early results showed 47% I 40% R it’s no longer). Like yeah they are a bumfuck redneck state but even the guy they’re sending actually might support Bernie-style efforts to defeat anticompetitice oligarchies, billionaires, and might pass wealth taxes on them for deficit reasons…Idaho is still 49 R, 41 I. Second I candidate pulling 6.8.
Would have been closer with only 1 I candidate.
It was closer to the other way around an hour ago but oh well, too bad. The fact that an alternative is even imaginable there…
FiftyPlusOne claiming that Democrats have 80% chance of winning the senate, with the top probabilities being Democrats with 53, 52, 54, 51, or 55 seats. After 55 comes 50 seats (aka: Republican win after JD Vance’s tiebreaker vote).
I dunno what has changed in the past weeks, but we’ve gone from ~52 seats “best case” for Democrats to ~53 seats “average case” and 55 seats “best case”.
I consider 51 seats to be a loss btw. Remember that we have to deal with the traitor Democrat: John Fetterman, which is -1 effective vote for Democrats and +1 effective vote for Republicans. 52 seats are needed to beat 48 Republicans + a traitor vote + JD Vance tiebreaker.
I consider 51 seats to be a loss btw. Remember that we have to deal with the traitor Democrat: John Fetterman, which is -1 effective vote for Democrats and +1 effective vote for Republicans. 52 seats are needed to beat 48 Republicans + a traitor vote + JD Vance tiebreaker.
If it’s 51/49, Fetterman is definitely permanently switching parties and giving both the tiebreaker to Vance and control of the Senate to the GOP.
Dems have already flipped 6 seats in the Senate alone.
And it looks like Republicans might lose a couple to independents.
7 - Collins just conceded.
Huzzah!
I’m seeing 53 confirmed seats with two more looking good. Fingers crossed!
And 213 House seats confirmed so far! Only 5 more to go, and 96 races yet to be called.
What is this, hope?
Do you think we have enough to impeach and remove now, you think?
Maybe Hegseth. The Iran war is clearly very unpopular and Trump is likely looking for a scapegoat. If Trump can be led to believe that sacrificing Hegseth is for Trump’s benefit, we can start with that.
Going for Trump directly seems like a political mistake. There’s a lot of good we can do by going for some easier impeachments first. And with some smarts, we can play the Republicans against each other and weaken them before we move in for something bigger.
Besides, removing Trump only puts JD Vance in charge. Its a lot of effort and high risk, without a big gain. Removal of Hegseth on the other hand is likely the best path we have towards making peace with Iran, no joke.
Honestly, he’s purged the pentagon so badly that whoever takes over for Hegseth is still going to rubber-stamp whatever he asks for. I say we finally impeach and remove Trump and let the chips fall where they may. Some republicans may even save face by voting to convict.
Attacking the easier targets would build momentum and also capitalize upon the Republican infighting.
Maybe so. I just don’t want the public to think it’s the only thing we’re here to do. Let’s get the big thing out of the way and then get on with governing and preventing these mistakes from ever happening again.
