Today is Tuesday, 10/20 and the general US Elections are in TWO WEEKS.

As it stands right now, the current Senate composition is:
47 - Democrats
51 - Republicans
2 - Independents

Looking at the numbers, we COULD see a huge shift in the Senate this year, best case scenario would be:

52 - Democrats
45 - Republicans
3 - Independents

1ST DEMOCRATIC FLIP - NC
2ND DEMOCRATIC FLIP - SC
3RD DEMOCRATIC FLIP - TX
4TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - OH
5TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - KS
6TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - IA
7TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - ME

El-Sayed wins MI, hold, not a flip!

Alaska - 74% Reporting - D+0.29 (637 votes!)
(Dan Sullivan^1 47.88%
Dan Sullivan^2 1.68%)
Mississippi - 96% Reporting - D+0.18 (1,724 votes!)

Chart Follows:

State Current Occupant Status D Cand R Cand Polling 10/18 Outcome Polling Direction
Colorado Democratic Hickenlooper Safe D John Hickelooper Mark Baisley Called D
Delaware Democratic Coons Safe D Chris Coons Michael Katz Called D
Georgia Democratic Ossoff Safe D Jon Ossoff Mike Collins Called D
Illnois Democratic Durbin Safe D Juliana Stratton Don Tracy Called D
Massachusetts Democratic Markey Safe D Ed Markey John Deaton Called D
New Hampshire Democratic Shaheen Safe D Chris Pappas John E. Sununu Called D
New Jersey Democratic Booker Safe D Cory Booker Justin Murphy Called D
New Mexico Democratic Luja Safe D Ben Ray Luján Larry Marker Called D
Oregon Democratic Merkley Safe D Jeff Merkley David Brock Smith Called D
Rhode Island Democratic Reed Safe D Jack Reed Raymond McKay Called D
Virginia Democratic Warner Safe D Mark Warner Bert Mizusawa Called D
Minnesota Democratic Smith D Peggy Flanagan Michele Tafoya Called D
North Carolina Republican Tillis D Roy Cooper Michael Whatley D FLIP Possible D Flip D Momentum since 6/1
Alabama Republican Tuberville Safe R Everett Wess Barry Moore Called R
Arkansas Republican Cotton Safe R Hallie Shoffner Tom Cotton Called R
Florida Republican Moody Safe R Angie Nixon Ashley Moody Called R
Idaho Republican Risch Safe R Withdrawn Jim Risch Called R
Kentucky Republican McConnell Safe R Charles Booker Andy Barr Called R
Louisiana Republican Cassidy Safe R Jamie Davis Julia Letlow Called R
Mississippi Republican Hyde-Smith Safe R Cindy Hyde-Smith Scott Colom R+9
Montana Republican Daines Safe R Alani Bankhead Kurt Alme Called R
Nebraska Republican Ricketts Safe R Dan Osborn (I) Pete Ricketts Called R R Momentum since 10/1
Oklahoma Republican Armstrong Safe R N’Kiyla Thomas Kevin Hern Called R
South Dakota Republican Rounds Safe R Brian Bengs Mike Rounds Called R
Tennessee Republican Hagerty Safe R Marquita Bradshaw Bill Hagerty Called R
West Virginia Republican Capito Safe R Rachel Fetty Anderson Shelley Moore Capito Called R
Wyoming Republican Lummis Safe R James Byrd Harriet Hageman Called R
South Carolina Republican Graham R Annie Andrews Darline Graham D FLIP R Momentum since 8/29
Alaska Republican Sullivan Tossup Mary Peltola Dan Sullivan D+3 Possible D Flip D Momentum since 8/4
Iowa Republican Ernst Tossup Josh Turek Ashley Hinson D FLIP Possible D Flip D Momentum since 9/10
Kansas Republican Marshall Tossup Adam Hamilton Roger Marshall D FLIP Possible D Flip D Momentum since 10/1
Maine Republican Collins Tossup Troy Jackson Susan Collins COLLINS CONCEDES Possible D Flip D Momentum since 7/6
Michigan Democratic Peters Tossup Abdul El-Sayed Mike Rogers Called D Possible R Flip D Momentum since 8/17
Ohio Republican Husted Tossup Sherrod Brown Jon Husted D FLIP Possible D Flip D Momentum since 6/2
Texas Republican Cornyn Tossup James Talarico Ken Paxton D FLIP Possible D Flip D Momentum since 6/1
  • dragontamer@lemmy.world
    12·
    4 days ago

    FiftyPlusOne claiming that Democrats have 80% chance of winning the senate, with the top probabilities being Democrats with 53, 52, 54, 51, or 55 seats. After 55 comes 50 seats (aka: Republican win after JD Vance’s tiebreaker vote).

    I dunno what has changed in the past weeks, but we’ve gone from ~52 seats “best case” for Democrats to ~53 seats “average case” and 55 seats “best case”.

    I consider 51 seats to be a loss btw. Remember that we have to deal with the traitor Democrat: John Fetterman, which is -1 effective vote for Democrats and +1 effective vote for Republicans. 52 seats are needed to beat 48 Republicans + a traitor vote + JD Vance tiebreaker.

    • NekoKoneko@lemmy.world
      9·
      3 days ago

      I consider 51 seats to be a loss btw. Remember that we have to deal with the traitor Democrat: John Fetterman, which is -1 effective vote for Democrats and +1 effective vote for Republicans. 52 seats are needed to beat 48 Republicans + a traitor vote + JD Vance tiebreaker.

      If it’s 51/49, Fetterman is definitely permanently switching parties and giving both the tiebreaker to Vance and control of the Senate to the GOP.

      • dragontamer@lemmy.world
        4·
        3 days ago

        Maybe Hegseth. The Iran war is clearly very unpopular and Trump is likely looking for a scapegoat. If Trump can be led to believe that sacrificing Hegseth is for Trump’s benefit, we can start with that.

        Going for Trump directly seems like a political mistake. There’s a lot of good we can do by going for some easier impeachments first. And with some smarts, we can play the Republicans against each other and weaken them before we move in for something bigger.

        Besides, removing Trump only puts JD Vance in charge. Its a lot of effort and high risk, without a big gain. Removal of Hegseth on the other hand is likely the best path we have towards making peace with Iran, no joke.

        • Guy Dudeman@lemmy.worldEnglish
          2·
          3 days ago

          Honestly, he’s purged the pentagon so badly that whoever takes over for Hegseth is still going to rubber-stamp whatever he asks for. I say we finally impeach and remove Trump and let the chips fall where they may. Some republicans may even save face by voting to convict.

            • Guy Dudeman@lemmy.worldEnglish
              1·
              2 days ago

              Maybe so. I just don’t want the public to think it’s the only thing we’re here to do. Let’s get the big thing out of the way and then get on with governing and preventing these mistakes from ever happening again.