There is a very high chance he gets removed. Losing a rushed war with bad advice given to Trump is bad enough. There is no actual escalation of war options, because the funding requests to replenish existing depletions/losses can’t get justified to congress, and lying that escalation is affordable is not possible when the defeat so far is already unaffordable.

There is a funding request that passed the house, and is stalled in Senate, that would give Hegseth “national security” magic word authority to spend unlimited amounts. That is an even higher priority to defeat.