For nearly two years, the job market Americans were told about has been significantly stronger than the one that actually existed, and the Federal Reserve made a major policy decision based on numbers that have since been quietly rewritten.
I’ve never understood why they even release those numbers when they do. They always get revised. Always. And with this administration, you can’t even trust the revisions.
Totally reasonable question. The question is would you rather have very accurate numbers three months late, or fairly accurate numbers barely a month late? That’s the calculus, and in the current era of a complete lack of trust in government, there’s…kind of an argument for three months late, but really businesses and the public overwhelmingly want the numbers earlier and can adjust based on predictions of revisions (which they do), so one month it is. Plus, these are very old programs and the publishing procedures have been set for quite a long time.
I’d caveat though that there is absolutely no reason you can’t trust these numbers. See my comment above in this thread about reliability of BLS statistics. In an era where there are legions of former public health officials who quit and blow the whistle on things happening in that sector, I’m not sure what makes people think that a bunch of statistics nerds wouldn’t do the same thing. Plus, as the ostensibly pro business side, Republicans like accurate Principal Federal Economic Indicators at least as much as Democrats. Who do you think uses these stats?
I’ve never understood why they even release those numbers when they do. They always get revised. Always. And with this administration, you can’t even trust the revisions.
Totally reasonable question. The question is would you rather have very accurate numbers three months late, or fairly accurate numbers barely a month late? That’s the calculus, and in the current era of a complete lack of trust in government, there’s…kind of an argument for three months late, but really businesses and the public overwhelmingly want the numbers earlier and can adjust based on predictions of revisions (which they do), so one month it is. Plus, these are very old programs and the publishing procedures have been set for quite a long time.
I’d caveat though that there is absolutely no reason you can’t trust these numbers. See my comment above in this thread about reliability of BLS statistics. In an era where there are legions of former public health officials who quit and blow the whistle on things happening in that sector, I’m not sure what makes people think that a bunch of statistics nerds wouldn’t do the same thing. Plus, as the ostensibly pro business side, Republicans like accurate Principal Federal Economic Indicators at least as much as Democrats. Who do you think uses these stats?
bad job employments are usually very hazardous to incumbent politicians, and the associated party. thats why its always cooking the books.