Fantastic. That’s USD 750 per Earth inhabitant. You could feed all of humanity for this, with is what is essentially needed.
You can still feed humanity with it… to Skynet.
Now all that is pissed away. We had our chance and threw it away.
Not going to happen. Meanwhile, models are becoming insanely capable and efficient, such as Opus 5.5.
I’m pretty sure Ed Zitron has been keeping pretty good accounting numbers. Whether you think his predictions are right or wrong (the hype has outlived even my expectations), I think he’s right about how much debt has been generated vs how much cash will be needed to service that debt and it seems highly unlikely that we aren’t letting these companies pretend there’s a pot of gold under every blade of grass to our own detriment.
If it didn’t make sense, that’s because it’s early and I just woke up.
Anthropic is claiming its total addressable market is over $30tn, so it’s all good, right? (No, that’s obviously crazy)
AI lab Anthropic, reportedly on the verge of a $2 trillion IPO, is preparing to tell investors that its total addressable market is worth more than $30 trillion, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal.
To put that figure in perspective, it eclipses the total GDP of China, is roughly equal to the entire GDP of the U.S., and represents about a quarter of the total world GDP of $120 trillion.
I wonder how much of that proclaimed TAM will be addressed with open models. I’m running Qwen 3.8 27B on my 7900 XTX and have no need to give Anthropic or OpenAI any of my money or data.
Eh total addressable market is such a meaningless figure anyway. Total addressable market is everyone who has a device that they can use AI from, multiplied by the average annual cost of using them. Plus every company that exists in the world, multiplied by how much the AI spend is for the average company. Plus every government in the world. Etc. Boom, 30 trillion. It’s like a super optimistic “this is the maximum that any AI company could ever earn per year if they controlled the whole market and everyone who could use AI is a paying customer”.
That 2 trillion valuation they seek is hella bogus either way. For 30 trillion actual revenue with any real profit margin, it would be low, but we all know they’re not bringing in trillions in revenue.
The catch is that’s the amount of money it’ll be after inflations boom ;)
It’s proof of unsustainable AI bubble. Can’t hit those numbers. https://lemmy.ca/post/71626228/25584891
Eff Bain. They say whatever suits the moment. They did over a company I used to work for. The company went bankrupt and laid off employees.
That’s government money.
Ok so this is interesting. I am not sure this number is accurate I haven’t fully vetted it. I do this same type of forecasting. Morgan Stanley said for current capex commitments by 2027 4th quarter they needed to be 700 billion in profit. The problem is to meet that number they would need full market saturation and another 3 trillion in capex for build out. That means the entire accessible market would be using AI. They have another problem that more than half the world cannot access AI in its current form. The tooling these companies are using are wasteful and don’t meet the bandwidth needs of mobile first countries. So until the industry adopts things like https://codecai.net/ half the world’s markets are inaccessible. Finally they are under attack from all sides even if they had the money they may not have the ability to build out the AI infrastructure because that build out is becoming untenable for most communities. Even more the open source models and low cost AI are already in someways encroaching quickly on frontier systems. If you look at it right now the only reason you don’t have home AI as a commonplace solution is because the manufacturer has chosen not to sell it to you.
Also note Apple’s, AMD’s and NVIDIA’s (Spark) unified memory solutions for local LLMs/agents. AMD advertises 300B and NVIDIA advertises 200B models running locally. The question is whether Anthropic/OpenAI are going to be relevant at all in the future, with local models becoming increasingly capable and affordable. However: There are rumors the Chinese government wants to restrict access to its models. Not set in stone and also not sure whether this is true. Could this entail no more access to new open-source models? Who knows. But even then, energy and resources are going to be a bottleneck. I have not looked into the concrete numbers and this is not my field of expertise, but I find it highly unlikely that they are going to be able to capture the entire market.
The local models thing is the real threat. For what 90% of the world who actually cares and wants AI, a local model is probably already “good enough”. Or would be if they could get the hardware, or maybe they don’t know how to set one up.
Got a 27b model running on my gaming GPU. Its a bit slow but good enough to look someing up, causual coding, and stupid questions. China is really kicking ass with the open source models.
Light web searching suggests that neither the automobile industry as a whole nor the health insurance industry as a whole exceed $3 trillion in annual global revenue. Which means the plagiarism-to-slop pipeline just needs to make a little bit more than the automobile and health insurance industries combined to justify itself.
Easy. AI cloud controlled vehicle fleet with government support to make it mandatory, AI health centers as default healthcare, supplement the rest with premium AI generated nudies.
Wow you just described something that would make me go full IRA good job. Fucken caused a physical recoil in absolute horror.
If you look at it right now the only reason you don’t have home AI as a commonplace solution is because the manufacturer has chosen not to sell it to you.
And memory shortage. By buying up all RAM they ensured that you can’t run much more than lobotomized models.
Still much cheaper to run an open source model on a rented gpu from the cloud.
up all RAM they ensured that you can’t run much more than lobotomized models. this is what I mean they’ve chosen to target a different consumer and rightfully so in that they are paying a premium for that product but they are also being subsidized by the same vendor so it’s not clear that they are paying more due to the bizarre circular funding pattern.
I’m just waiting for some breakthrough in the hardware and suddenly all of those data centers become outdated.
With the stories of AI being used to break into secure systems I wouldn’t be surprised if other nations also start throwing up walls to block them.
Same, but for the software. Backpropagation based software is a known limitation to current GenAI LLMs.
This isn’t the same thing as making VCRs cheap enough that every home has one. There is no FOMO wirh AI at the consumer level, no one knows what to do with it. The only people who want it are the ones who male it!!
Imagine if this was invested in arresting climate change.
And homelessness, and actual education for people.
Yeah, “and”.
You could probably actually solve a lot of problems in the world with this money.
We always have money for other stuff.
Revenue is not profit. How are they going to pay their debts, for example? 6T in (fantasised) ARR is already about a third of US Fortune 500 total revenue over 2025, 21T. Good luck with that lol.
I actually explain exactly the plan here. I wrote an article explaining it. They intend to use several channels to socialize losses. The big ones are the front door. Literal bail outs and subsidies on multiple levels. The back door is passing it on to passive investors. At the beginning of next year we will see a near total economic collapse as this bubble bursts. Once it does passive investors will be wiped out. A whole generation of retirement savings and pension plans wiped out while simultaneously the fed will bail out the major players. Here is the article https://themildtake.com/articles/2026-06-05-priced-for-rescue/. Most people picked up on this when SpaceX went public. What they didn’t mention was even if your in the S&P that only shields you from a single bad player and a minor one at that. Microsoft, oracle, google all these big hyperscalers and service providers renting that compute are all going to take a dive.
So where do we move the retirement account investments to to avoid the bubble? I think most of mine are in stuff like mid-cap and large-cap funds
If they do get bailed out, people better make sure they’re armed when they’re protesting because they’re almost certainly going to use illegal force to quash dissent of their theft.
Their argument is going to be that AI is so good, it’ll just replace half of the Fortune 500 with their own agentic AI.
It’s so delusional.
Like fuck everything AI creates is so generic and bland even generic and bland corporate output looks nice.
I don’t know.
There is a ton of corporate email pushers and power point makers which could be replaced by an AI model I think.
The current issue they are struggling with is figuring out who they can blame when it fucks up. At some point they will land on an answer that to that. We are literally in the age of people copy pasting AI output into emails. At some point that’s gotta give.
I mean, yes, but they can’t be replaced by AI because AI does the job better, they can be replaced by AI because they produce nothing of actual value.
That’s the consumer side. The boring bland generic is pretty decent for code if the operator isn’t a slop zombie
I guess the $6tn is also including wages not being paid. They think they can just pocket the pros of AI and leave the rest of the world population with the cons. A small analogy. If nobody does large agriculture, there won’t be many tractors and tools sold and maintained. There won’t be cheap grain to be processed into convenience food, animal feed, booze. With those there won’t be food, meat, dairy and eggs for the masses which again needs specialised tools and machinery. You can keep going with this into increasingly miniscule economic sectors.
The point I want to reach is drawing the picture of a propellerheaded youth sawing into the branch on which he is sitting - and with him the whole family of H.Sapiens.
Just another food for thought. Scientists expect the next ice age in 10 millennia but we are about to loose our advanced and highly specialised society to a manmade global warming. We surely won’t be dying out anytime soon I believe, but neither will we be to go into that ice age as an advanced society.
Even then. Let’s say that Ed Zitron has all the numbers wrong here and they’re actually double, just for the sake of the argument: that would mean OpenAI and Anthropic would have a current yearly revenue of 164.4b$. (And as said, they don’t!). Even if you double the Meta, Microsoft, Google revenue you’d still be at a mere 260b$. Even hilariously exaggerating the numbers doesn’t even come close to the completely insane 6T!
That’s just like my opinion. They think it’s worth that because their customers won’t need a single employee or very few. In many sectors manpower is the largest recurring position that can’t just sit there and be resold like land or a building. Manpower goes “stale” if it isn’t productive. A factory with bots can be shut down if needed and rebooted anytime goods or orders accumulate. Creativity can’t really be forced and with ai and enough input an “ideal model” of how the product should look like can just be remodeled and repainted to fit the newest trend.
That’s what every company might try, ditch their human employees for some ai agent and ai tokens, that might be where the $6tn comes from. A very big bubble blowing up and exploding right after the masses missed their third meal facing food anxiety, desperation, anger and going after anybody that looks vaguely rich to shatter their bones to suck their bone marrow. I hope Elmo gets it first.
Off topic, I know, but I’m curious what you’re reading about the next ice age. Always found that history interesting, but never thought to look toward the next one.
I frequent museums quite a lot and natural history is part of a lot of exhibits. They agree that we are on top of a warm cycle that keeps warming up because of man made factors.
Since we are disturbing the natural cycle in a way that is detrimental to the fundaments of our society, agriculture, it’s argued this will affect us during our lifetime - like it currently does, but worse is to come.For the ice ages of the past my understanding is that many many humanoids migrating from africa and evolving into different branches of homo have gone extinct during the ice ages.
My opinion is, we could see waves of refugees that brought down ancient and advanced societies like the hithites. Might be the hithites went down because they had to abandon their home because of drought. Ancient egypt, being forced into its knees, barely surviving, is a better studied era. Basically, bad times that has a global effect, people who can’t cope seek refuge in less affected or richet places, overburdening them and creating a domino effect of refuge seeking. This creates an armed cycle spiralling the world into chaos and taking away from and effectively disabling history writing and sciences, plunging the world deeper into the pit since the skills, tools and institutions needed for education and science are cultivated over many generations of itterations. Once shut down and anybody - able to use and create those tools, the knowledge to educate and do science, understand and derive knowledge from books and data - died off you can’t just boot it up again but have to create it from scratch.
All of those DRAMs you can’t buy are in that number.
Waiting for the bubble to pop. I need a new GPU and maybe a SSD.
I assure you, if you are a brokie like the rest of us, you will not have the money to spare in the ensuing recession. Honestly I expect personal computing is dead, likely for a decade or more, if it ever comes back.
From one brokie to another, drowning in debt is indistinguishable from drowning in debt with a GPU and SSD.
Yeah, there is also speculation that part of this build out is intended to force a shortage to get everyone to shift to thin client “cloud PCs” where everyone can be monitored and ad blockers can be avoided.
yes that’s exactly the plan and the reason these companies are paying profound premiums back to nVidia. If they don’t pay up nVidia will just announce another spark roll out and scare the crap out of them. They know as soon as newer computer hits the consumer market they are dead in the water.
That shift has already happened.
People on this forum trend to use personal computers but most people now only use phones. They might have a laptop provided by work but many don’t own one at all.
The push to “the cloud” happened ten years ago. The people around here are the exception.
With the amount of integration it achieved to facilitate services and transactions? I am very skeptical of that. I expect to happen a serious market feagmentation and a great number of bankrupties but the void will be filled by new presences.
It wont be like dead dead, but just stagnant. Companies like nvidia will just sell the barely passable hardware with even less reason to upgrade because the prices will rise and the performance jumps will decrease. The good thing is that even the entry level hardware was already good enough for 95% of use cases and what justified upgrades anyway was mostly AAA gaming graphics slop or heavy 3d renders for professionals.
The bad news is that entry level hardware will cost more than high end hardware did last year
and they already bought years worth of chips, so no computing for a long time.
afaik they havent, they committed to buying them, so they will be built, and when they dont buy them because they are insolvent, we should be able to get them at good prices
https://thedeepdive.ca/openai-locked-up-40-of-global-ram-with-no-obligation-to-buy-any-of-it/
ez, just do some more hyperinflation. That’ll be about enough to buy a bag of rice
I can check my wallet but I’m pretty sure I can’t swing that
I don’t know if I have $6T in product recommendation questions
An entirely reasonable sum.
I’ll get my big wallet, I better give them $7tn those poor billionaires.
