The bond market’s assessment also jibes with SpaceX’s stock. It’s a profitless, non-dividend-paying, one-person-controlled, empire-building project trading at more than 100 times sales, about 30 times the valuation of the S&P 500 Index. That’s the very definition of a junk stock.
Original link: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-07-02/spacex-is-junk-that-s-what-the-bond-market-says
Prior to the IPO, I was absolutely interested in SpaceX stock. Regardless of Musk’s antics, they are far and away the most advanced and most successful space launch company in the world.
Where traditional space launch companies like Boeing and ULA are floundering and failing, SpaceX was getting it done, to the point where NASA and the US Military had to move flights originally booked with ULA and hand them to SpaceX because they were the only ones able to get things done on schedule AND is more profitable than any other rocket company thanks to landing and reuse technology.
Then, of course Musk merged Twitter into xAI, merged xAI into SpaceX, then basically called SpaceX an AI company to attract more AI investment hype, and 99% of the stock value is AI hype.
And I have zero interest in SpaceX stock any more.
I’m in the same boat. For years I’d been excited to potentially own some SpaceX shares if they went public. No interest at all now due to xAI merger. I did gamble a bit of money on day 1 just because the odds of a pop were real, but i just got in and out and I was done.
For orbital launches, maybe, but they have all kinds of competition now. Would they even be in business if not for huge government contracts without milestones?
They dont have any competition at the scale of what falcon 9 can do yet. Blue Origin is getting close, but they’re not quite there yet.
People are transferring contracts to falcon 9 because it works and is available.
If Starship succeeds, they’ll be leap frogging everything being built now thats meant to compete with Falcon 9.
It does seem to be a one pump chump